Ethiopia sliding towards civil war as Tigray conflict spreads into Amhara and Afar

Ethiopia faces a rapidly deteriorating security crisis after the Tigray People's Liberation Front declared it was engaged in a "full-blown war" with the federal government, with fighting spreading beyond Tigray into the neighbouring Amhara and Afar regions.

The federal army says it killed 272 TPLF fighters and wounded a further 260 in engagements in Amhara, as rebel forces seized key airports and launched attacks on multiple fronts. The scale of the offensive has raised widespread fears of a return to the devastating civil war that gripped the country between 2020 and 2022, a conflict that claimed at least tens of thousands of lives.

The latest escalation follows the TPLF's decision to join six other armed groups in a new alliance against the federal government, significantly broadening the coalition ranged against Addis Ababa. Analysts warn the formation of that alliance marks a serious and potentially transformative shift in the conflict's dynamics, deepening the threat to Ethiopia's stability.