China and US pull back from the brink again despite nearly a decade of trade warfare

China and the United States have demonstrated a recurring capacity to step back from open economic conflict, even as tensions between the two powers have built steadily over nearly a decade of tariffs, export controls and blacklists that have repeatedly threatened to sever ties entirely.

The pattern has become a familiar one: hostilities escalate in the run-up to high-level meetings, only to ease sharply once leaders sit down together. At the 2019 Osaka summit, President Trump walked back threats to impose tariffs on three hundred billion dollars' worth of Chinese goods and loosened restrictions on telecoms giant Huawei following talks with Beijing's leadership.

The cycle of provocation and de-escalation suggests that, despite the depth of their rivalry, both governments retain a strong interest in avoiding outright rupture. Each round of confrontation has so far stopped short of the kind of irreversible break that analysts have periodically warned was imminent.

The durability of the relationship, however fractious, points to the degree to which the two economies remain intertwined, giving both sides powerful incentives to keep channels of communication open even as competition across technology, trade and geopolitics continues to intensify.