S&P, Fitch and ADB all raise India growth forecasts as El Niño clouds outlook

Three of the world's leading financial institutions — S&P Global Ratings, Fitch Ratings and the Asian Development Bank — have each raised their growth forecasts for the Indian economy, signalling growing confidence in the country's near-term economic trajectory.

The successive upgrades reflect strengthening domestic demand, resilient public investment and a broadly stable macroeconomic environment that has outperformed earlier expectations across the current fiscal year.

However, analysts caution that the emerging El Niño weather pattern poses a meaningful downside risk. A below-normal monsoon season could weigh on agricultural output, stoke food inflation and constrain rural consumption, potentially eroding some of the gains that the upgraded forecasts anticipate.